{"id":1471,"date":"2025-01-16T11:48:00","date_gmt":"2025-01-16T03:48:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/?p=1471"},"modified":"2025-01-16T11:48:18","modified_gmt":"2025-01-16T03:48:18","slug":"inventory-of-cathode-materials-in-2024-market-forecast-for-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/es\/inventory-of-cathode-materials-in-2024-market-forecast-for-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00a1Inventario de materiales cat\u00f3dicos en 2024! \u00a1Previsi\u00f3n del mercado para 2025!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>En 2024, la oferta y la demanda de materiales cat\u00f3dicos se desequilibrar\u00e1n. Debido a la guerra de precios entre los principales fabricantes de autom\u00f3viles, el uso de bater\u00edas ternarias de litio ha disminuido. Por el contrario, la demanda de materiales de fosfato de hierro y litio se ha disparado. Su uso ha aumentado r\u00e1pidamente. Al mismo tiempo, el fosfato de hierro y litio se ha convertido en el &quot;rey del rey del volumen&quot;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a1M\u00e1s altos, m\u00e1s bajos o m\u00e1s duraderos! Algunas empresas ya han gritado: \u201cPrep\u00e1rense para 10 a\u00f1os de p\u00e9rdidas\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00a1Ha comenzado una nueva ronda de eliminaci\u00f3n de mejoras industriales en 2024! \u00bfA d\u00f3nde ir\u00e1 en 2025?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Materiales ternarios: soporte de costes, stop loss y turn profit<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>En 2024, el desempe\u00f1o de los materiales ternarios es al principio preocupante, luego estable. En la primera mitad del a\u00f1o, todav\u00eda es &quot;mitad rentable y mitad p\u00e9rdida&quot;. En la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o, a medida que los precios se recuperen, dejar\u00e1 gradualmente de perder dinero y pasar\u00e1 a ser rentable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Los datos muestran que, de enero a noviembre de 2024, las bater\u00edas de litio ten\u00edan una capacidad de 473 GWh. Esto supone un aumento de 391 TP3T respecto al a\u00f1o pasado. La popularidad se limita a las bater\u00edas de fosfato de hierro y litio. La cuota de las bater\u00edas ternarias de litio ha disminuido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"768\" src=\"https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Ternary-Materials-1024x768.webp\" alt=\"Materiales ternarios\" class=\"wp-image-1472\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Ternary-Materials-1024x768.webp 1024w, https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Ternary-Materials-300x225.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Ternary-Materials-768x576.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Ternary-Materials-16x12.webp 16w, https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Ternary-Materials.webp 1080w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Debido a un crecimiento m\u00e1s lento de la demanda, los precios de los materiales de c\u00e1todos ternarios se estancaron. En la segunda mitad del a\u00f1o, mostraron signos de estabilizaci\u00f3n. Los materiales ternarios se pueden producir en grandes vol\u00famenes, pero hay poca capacidad nueva. Los precios de las empresas existentes son bajos debido a los costos y la consolidaci\u00f3n de la industria. A medida que los veh\u00edculos de nueva energ\u00eda de bajo costo inundan el mercado, las bater\u00edas ternarias de litio no pueden obtener ganancias. Las principales empresas de materiales ternarios, como Dangsheng y Rongbai, tienen la vista puesta en los mercados extranjeros.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fosfato de hierro y litio: competencia interna descontrolada y falsos aumentos de precios<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>El fosfato de hierro y litio est\u00e1 ahora en el punto de mira, con una gran demanda y oferta. Es mejor que los materiales ternarios. El auge de los aires acondicionados con bomba de calor ha mejorado las bater\u00edas de fosfato de hierro y litio. Su rendimiento a baja temperatura es mejor. La tecnolog\u00eda de bater\u00edas y los sistemas de gesti\u00f3n t\u00e9rmica tambi\u00e9n han avanzado. Como resultado, m\u00e1s veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos utilizan estas bater\u00edas. Su resistencia a baja temperatura es ahora mayor y hay m\u00e1s modelos disponibles con ellas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En el primer y tercer trimestre de 2024, los precios del litio aumentaron. Por lo tanto, la industria del fosfato de hierro y litio necesitaba reponer inventarios baratos. El cronograma de producci\u00f3n y la tasa operativa de la industria de bater\u00edas de litio se recuperaron gradualmente. La producci\u00f3n y la capacidad de producci\u00f3n de fosfato de hierro y litio han aumentado mucho desde el a\u00f1o pasado. En el primer y tercer trimestre de 2024, las bater\u00edas de fosfato de hierro y litio produjeron el doble de su capacidad instalada. Esto fue superior a la demanda general del mercado. Hubo un cierto desajuste temporal entre la oferta y la demanda. La industria est\u00e1 en una profunda reducci\u00f3n de existencias. Est\u00e1 bajo una gran presi\u00f3n para reducir costos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En 2024, la capacidad de producci\u00f3n de fosfato de hierro y litio ser\u00e1 de 5,2 millones de toneladas. La producci\u00f3n real ser\u00e1 de 2,4 millones de toneladas. Por lo tanto, la utilizaci\u00f3n de la capacidad ser\u00e1 inferior a 50%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En 2024, el fosfato de hierro y litio ser\u00e1 un tipo de bater\u00eda de litio muy complejo. El exceso absoluto de capacidad se ha convertido en una sombra indeleble sobre los precios de los productos y las ganancias corporativas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Avances recientes en materiales de fosfato de hierro y litio<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p>La industria del fosfato de hierro y litio ha ganado popularidad. Algunos productos de fosfato de hierro y litio de alta gama ahora escasean. Algunas empresas est\u00e1n cerca de alcanzar la producci\u00f3n total y los precios han aumentado. Esto se debe principalmente a una mayor demanda de compactaci\u00f3n de productos. Adem\u00e1s, las mejoras de procesos provocaron un &quot;falso aumento de precios&quot;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Los materiales de fosfato de hierro y litio se pueden quemar una vez. Para aumentar la densidad energ\u00e9tica, los fabricantes ahora actualizan la primera a una segunda sinterizaci\u00f3n. Esto aumenta la densidad de compactaci\u00f3n de los materiales. Esto aumenta enormemente el costo y la utilizaci\u00f3n de la l\u00ednea. La capacidad de producci\u00f3n original es equivalente a estar fuera de 50%. Sin embargo, si se sinteriza nuevamente, una tonelada de material requerir\u00e1 una tarifa adicional de 2.000 yuanes. Por lo tanto, parece que el precio de los materiales de fosfato de hierro y litio est\u00e1 aumentando, de 1.000 a 2.000 yuanes. Pero, el aumento del precio no puede compensar los costos m\u00e1s altos despu\u00e9s de la &quot;segunda combusti\u00f3n&quot;.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Parece que la industria se est\u00e1 recuperando y los precios de los productos est\u00e1n subiendo, pero una nueva ronda de actualizaciones tecnol\u00f3gicas y recortes de precios ha comenzado en secreto. Esto conducir\u00e1 a una situaci\u00f3n en 2025. Las grandes empresas pueden enfrentarse a una situaci\u00f3n embarazosa. Es posible que tengan que invertir m\u00e1s, ampliar la producci\u00f3n y actualizar los productos, pero no ganar\u00e1n dinero. Este juego de eliminaci\u00f3n se ha intensificado de repente.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yendo a ambos extremos: alto rendimiento de alta gama, rendimiento de bajo costo de gama alta<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>La industria de materiales para electrodos positivos de bater\u00edas de litio se encuentra en una encrucijada. Existe una gran demanda de materiales ternarios, pero los costos son altos. Por lo tanto, los desarrolladores est\u00e1n buscando dos extremos: materiales de \u201calta gama y alto rendimiento\u201d y \u201cde gama baja y rentables\u201d.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Uno de los objetivos es sacar provecho de productos de alto rendimiento, como bater\u00edas semis\u00f3lidas con alto contenido de n\u00edquel, bater\u00edas cil\u00edndricas de gran tama\u00f1o con n\u00facleo completo, herramientas de alta gama, supercoches el\u00e9ctricos y coches voladores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"800\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Lithium-iron-phosphate-material.webp\" alt=\"Material de fosfato de hierro y litio\" class=\"wp-image-1473\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Lithium-iron-phosphate-material.webp 800w, https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Lithium-iron-phosphate-material-300x225.webp 300w, https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Lithium-iron-phosphate-material-768x576.webp 768w, https:\/\/www.battery-material.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/01\/Lithium-iron-phosphate-material-16x12.webp 16w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>La otra direcci\u00f3n es \u201capegarse\u201d a la relaci\u00f3n costo-beneficio. Se trata de desarrollar materiales de fosfato de litio, hierro y manganeso y \u201cabrir nuevas ramas\u201d basadas en materiales de manganeso. Despu\u00e9s de la producci\u00f3n en masa, el fosfato de litio, hierro y manganeso ser\u00e1 el mejor para las bater\u00edas de veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos. Tendr\u00e1 las ventajas de las bater\u00edas ternarias y de hierro y litio, sin casi ninguno de sus inconvenientes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>En el caso del fosfato de hierro y litio, tanto la preparaci\u00f3n como el costo deben mejorar. Dado que la optimizaci\u00f3n a nivel de material est\u00e1 cerca de su l\u00edmite, nos centramos en optimizar el proceso. Ahora, nuestro objetivo es optimizar los equipos y los procesos. Tambi\u00e9n estamos utilizando la sinterizaci\u00f3n secundaria para mejorar el uso del material. Un nuevo enfoque es reemplazar el carbonato de litio con fosfato de dihidr\u00f3geno de litio para reducir el uso de energ\u00eda y las emisiones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pron\u00f3stico del mercado de materiales para c\u00e1todos de bater\u00edas de litio el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Una encuesta reciente muestra que existe una fuerte demanda de aumentos de precios para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. Las f\u00e1bricas de materiales para electrodos positivos desean un aumento de alrededor de 3.000 yuanes por tonelada. Sin embargo, las f\u00e1bricas de bater\u00edas probablemente aceptar\u00e1n un aumento de solo 1.500 yuanes por tonelada, la mitad del precio exigido.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Los resultados preliminares muestran que las f\u00e1bricas de carbonato de litio han reducido o eliminado los descuentos a largo plazo para el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o. Adem\u00e1s, el precio de las materias primas de fosfato de hierro est\u00e1 aumentando. Las f\u00e1bricas de fosfato tienen una actitud clara de apoyo a los precios. Se puede inferir que los materiales de electrodos positivos de fosfato de hierro y litio tender\u00e1n a subir de precio. La clave es el aumento de precio final.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Del an\u00e1lisis detallado se desprende que los productos con una presi\u00f3n de polvo de 2,45 y 2,50 ocupan la mayor parte del mercado. Su homogeneidad y su bajo umbral t\u00e9cnico dificultan la modificaci\u00f3n del hecho de las p\u00e9rdidas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sin embargo, los productos con alta presi\u00f3n de polvo (tres generaciones y media o m\u00e1s) tienen una peque\u00f1a participaci\u00f3n en el mercado. El alto umbral t\u00e9cnico y la densidad energ\u00e9tica del producto impulsar\u00e1n la demanda. Las f\u00e1bricas que producen materiales para electrodos positivos de alta presi\u00f3n ganar\u00e1n poder de negociaci\u00f3n. Deber\u00edan poder convertir las p\u00e9rdidas en ganancias en la segunda mitad del pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>El mercado de hierro y litio se estabilizar\u00e1 y crecer\u00e1 el pr\u00f3ximo a\u00f1o, pero las vacaciones del Festival de Primavera y el alto inventario de 2024 debilitar\u00e1n la oferta y la demanda a principios de 2025. Se espera que la segunda mitad de 2025 sea s\u00f3lida.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>En 2024, los materiales de c\u00e1todo tendr\u00e1n un desequilibrio entre la oferta y la demanda. Debido a una guerra de precios entre los principales fabricantes de autom\u00f3viles, el uso de bater\u00edas ternarias de litio ha disminuido. En cambio, la demanda de materiales de fosfato de hierro y litio se ha disparado. Su uso ha aumentado r\u00e1pidamente. Al mismo tiempo, el fosfato de hierro y litio se ha convertido en el \u201crey del rey de [\u2026]<\/p>","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1473,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1471","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-new-energy"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v26.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Inventory of cathode materials in 2024! 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